On 11 March WHO declared Coronavirus as a pandemic

India ramps up efforts to contain the spread of novel coronavirus
Credits
On 11 March 2020, WHO declared Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak as a pandemic and reiterated the call for countries to take immediate actions and scale up response to treat, detect and reduce transmission to save people’s lives.

Situation update
As of 3 April 2020 (6:00 PM), according to the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW), a total of 2547 COVID-19 cases, (including 55 foreign nationals) have been reported in 29 states/union territories. These include 162 who have been cured/discharged, 1 who has migrated and 62 deaths. Hospital isolation of all confirmed cases, tracing and home quarantine of the contacts is ongoing.

On 24 March 2020, the Prime Minister announced a 21-day nationwide lockdown: “In order to protect the country, and each of its citizens, from midnight tonight, a complete ban is being imposed on people from stepping out of their homes.”

WHO Country Office for India support
WHO Country Office for India has been working closely with MoHFW on preparedness and response measures for COVID-19, including surveillance and contact tracing, laboratory diagnosis, risk communications and community engagement, hospital preparedness, infection prevention and control, and implementation of containment plan.

"India stands at an important turning point in its fight against COVID-19. Extraordinary situations demand extraordinary measures. The Prime Minister has taken bold and decisive steps to break the chain of transmission. It is equally vital that this window is used for further ramping up measures to find, isolate, test, treat and trace. WHO stands together in solidarity with India and its people and is committed to providing all the support that is needed," says Dr Henk Bekedam, WHO Representative to India.

Asaduddin Owaisi steps up in defence of Markaz Nizamuddin event, says wrong to blame Muslims for COVID-19 spike

Asaduddin Owaisi steps up in defence of Markaz Nizamuddin event, says wrong to blame Muslims for COVID-19 spike
By: FE Online | Updated: April 2, 2020 1:03:52 PM
Defending the organisers of abligh Jammat congregation, Asaduddin Owaisi he said the day the event began, the Health Ministry had said that coronavirus was "not a health emergency".


Asaduddin Owaisi said Tabligh Jammat congregation is being exploited to “blame all the Muslims” for the rising COVID-19 cases.
All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Musilmeen (AIMIM) leader Asaduddin Owaisi has slammed the alleged communalisation over the Markaz Nizamuddin incident that has apparently derailed the fight against coronavirus. According to Owaisi, the Tabligh Jammat congregation, which was attended by thousands of people including foreigners, is being exploited to “blame all the Muslims” for the rising COVID-19 cases.

Defending the organisers, he said the day the event began, the Health Ministry had said that coronavirus was “not a health emergency”

Tablighi Jamaat - Controversy or Conspiracy? - Organiser

Tablighi Jamaat - Controversy or Conspiracy?
    02-Apr-2020
  
Brig (Retd) GB Reddy

The movement has served as a fertile breeding ground for radical Islamic militancy in numerous countries.

Is the ongoing media coverage and focus of the controversy over the Tabligh Jamaat (Society for spreading faith) Markaz (meaning conference) critical to follow and understand or is there a need to carry out an in depth review of its activities that may provide leads into Islamist radical conspiracy?

To understand and appreciate the issue defined, one needs to recall the origins of Tablighi Jamaat (TJ) origins and its “primary purpose or end objective”.

De facto, TJ is a conservative global educational and missionary movement set up in 1926 by Maulana Muhammad Ilyas in Mewat (in present-day Haryana) and the grandfather of Amir Maulana Saad, its present head. TJ is able to operate in near secrecy because the leaders since Ilyas, have been related to him by blood or marriage.

Ab initio, TJ “primary purpose” is to urging Muslims to return to practicing their religion as it was practiced during the lifetime of the Islamic prophet Muhammad, and particularly in matters of ritual, dress and personal behavior. It traces its roots the Deoband brand (most commonly practiced form of Islam in South Asia) of Hanafi Sunni School of jurisprudence. The movement aims for the spiritual reformation of Islam by working at the grassroots level.

TJ is the biggest Muslim movement in the world what with 150 million to 250 million adherents with presence in somewhere between 180 and 200 countries. Most of its followers are of South Asian origin, “though there are Tablighis from many different ethnic and national backgrounds”. It has been deemed as one of the most influential religious movements in 20th century Islam.

Next, the meaning of MARKAZ is simple – CONFERENCE. Outside of the Hajj, it is believed that its annual meetings, MARKAZ in countries, including Pakistan, Bangladesh and India, bring together the largest congregations of Muslims.

TJ denies any affiliation in politics and fiqh (jurisprudence), focusing instead on the Quran and Hadith. It states that it rejects violence as a means for evangelism. Many outside observers have described the group as "apolitical" at least in part because it avoids media and government notice, operates largely in secrecy, and has missionaries that lead austere lifestyles with principled stands against social ills.

In reality, the movement has served as a fertile breeding ground for radical Islamic militancy in numerous countries. As per the American Foreign Policy Council's report on TJ “the available data today indicates that TJ, at least in the preponderance of locations around the World where it is found, can be considered ipso facto a passive supporter of jihadist groups via its reinforcement of strict Islamic norms, intolerance of other religious traditions and unwavering commitment to Islamizing the entire planet. However, its eschewal of politics (at least publicly) has enabled TJ, in most venues, to escape suppression by wary government organs.

According to French Tabligh expert Marc Gaborieau, its philosophy and transnational goals include the "planned conquest of the World".

In France, as many as "80% percent of the Islamist extremists have come from TJ ranks prompting French intelligence officers to call TJ the antechamber of fundamentalism." Among those who have been members of TJ in France are Zacarias Moussaoui (the only person to be charged in the United States in 11 September attacks), Hervé Djamel Loiseau, a young Frenchman who died fleeing the 2001 American bombardment of Tora Bora in Afghanistan, and Djamel Beghal, an Algerian-born Frenchman and admitted member of Al Qaeda who was convicted in 2005 of plotting to blow up the U.S. Embassy in Paris.

In a foiled January 2008 bombing plot in Barcelona, Spain, "some media reports" stated that a Muslim leader in the city stated that the fourteen suspects arrested by police in a series of raids (where bomb-making materials were seized) were members of TJ.

Other terrorist plots and attacks on civilians that members of TJ have been connected with include the Portland Seven, the Lackawanna Six, the 2006 transatlantic aircraft plot, the 7/7 London bombings, the 2007 London car bombs, and 2007 Glasgow International Airport attack.

Former Department of Homeland Security employee Philip Haney described TJ as part of a "trans-national Islamist network" that was also affiliated with the Dar Al Uloom al Islamiyah mosque in San Bernardino, which terrorist Syed Rizwan Farook attended frequently. Assistant FBI Director Michael Heimbach said "We have a significant presence of TJ in the United States and we have found that al Qaeda used them for recruiting."

Most important, TJ members have been involved in politics in Pakistan, and in the West, a number of young men have passed through the group on their way to an extreme, militant interpretation of the religion.

Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (whose father was a prominent Tabligh member and financier) helped Tabligh members take prominent political positions. For example, in 1998, Muhammad Rafique Tarar, a Tabligh sympathizer, took the ceremonial presidency while, in 1990, Lt. Gen. Javed Nasir assumed the powerful director-generalship of the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's chief intelligence agency. Former Lieutenant General and head of Inter-Services Intelligence, General Mahmud Ahmed of the Pakistan Army also became a member of TJ during his service.

In 1995, after Benazir Bhutto, who was less sympathetic to Islamist causes, returned to the premiership, the Pakistani army thwarted a coup attempt by several dozen high-ranking military officers and civilians, some of whom were members of the Tabligh Jamaat and some of whom also held membership in Harkat-ul-Mujahedeen, a U.S. State Department-defined terrorist organization.

In January 2016, in what was "probably the first time that any restriction has been placed on TJ" in Pakistan, the Punjab government banned preaching on university campuses, and banned TJ (and other non-students) from preaching and staying in campus hostels.

Viewed in the background information available about TJ members terrorist activities, the MARKAZ organized at it campus in Nizamuddin Dargah, none can rule the possibility of conspiracy hatched during the even to further destabilize the Modi-led BJP government through spreading protests against CAA, NPR and NRC and plunging the nation into crisis.

Had 2019–20 Coronavirus pandemic not attracted significant public and media attention, all alike would have believed its purpose as the one oriented to the real purpose of the “Conference” to urge Muslim Maulvi to preach reverting Islam to its conservative ethos.

Let me also highlight the religious fathering that preceded the one at Nizamuddin in Delhi. Between 27 February and 1 March 2020, the movement organized an international mass religious gathering at the Sri Petaling Mosque in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, which has been linked to more than 600 COVID-19 cases, making it the largest-known centre of transmission of the virus in Southeast Asia.

Despite the outbreak, TJ organized a second international mass gathering on 18 March in Gowa Regency near Makassar in South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Though the organizers initially rebuffed official directives to cancel the gathering, they subsequently complied and cancelled the gathering.

Yet another gathering was organized in Pakistan near Lahore, for 150,000 people. The event was "called off" in response to the officials' requests, but the participants had already gathered and communed together. When they returned the virus travelled with them, including two cases in the Gaza strip.

The Nizamuddin faction of the TJ held a religious congregational program in Nizamuddin West, Delhi. There was Ijtema (congregation) every week of March till March 21. There were also other violations of rules by foreign speakers including misuse of tourist visas for missionary activities and not taking 14-day home quarantine for travelers from abroad. It is suspected that some of these speakers were infected by the Coronavirus which later spread to the congregants.

Many had returned to their states and also provided refuge to foreign speakers without the knowledge of local governments and eventually started local transmissions especially in Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka, Jammu and Kashmir and Assam.
There are many TJ members who are on the missing list. Given the affiliations of its members, their speeches, the link between the TJ activists and Shaheen Bagh protest organizers cannot be ruled out.


Delhi government has ordered an FIR against Muhammad Saad Kandhlawi, the head of Nizamuddin faction of the TJ for disobeying quarantine rule and conspiracy. 

On 16 March 2020, Delhi Government ordered that no religious, social, political gatherings of over 50 will be allowed in Delhi till 31 March 2020. As of 30 March 2020 the entire Nizamuddin West area has been cordoned off by the Police and medical camps have been set up.

Administration of TJ had said they are willing to dispatch hundreds of missionaries to their respective nations & states but as the lockdown is in place they are helpless.

Now, Delhi government has ordered an FIR against Muhammad Saad Kandhlawi, the head of Nizamuddin faction of the TJ. On 31 March 2020, FIR was filed against Muhammad Saad Kandhlawi and others by Delhi Police Crime Branch under Section 3 (penalty for offence) of the Epidemic Diseases Act, 1897 and Sections 269 (Negligent act likely to spread infection of disease), 270 (malignant act likely to spread infection of disease), 271 (disobedience to quarantine rule) and 120b (punishment of criminal conspiracy) of the IPC.

The TJ has no membership lists or formal procedures for membership which makes it difficult to quantify and verify affiliations. Viewed in the record of members' terrorist affiliations, record of Conferences and vituperative speeches, none can rule out the possibility of terror conspiracies behind the scenes. Can the linkage between the TJ activists and Shaheen Bagh protest organizers be ruled out?

Next, as per media reports there are over 40 TJ members who are on the ‘missing’ list. Who are they and where are they? Are they terrorists hiding in the TJ campus and now hiding in Mosques elsewhere? More important, where is Amir Maulana Muhammad Saad hiding? How has he escaped and where has he gone. His trail would also reveal a lot of intelligence.

Yet another key indicator that would reveal the activities of TJ is its finances to include receipt and disbursements.
Surely, the NIA must take over the investigations and obtain all recordings of speeches, particularly speeches made by foreign preachers during their visits in Telangana, Tamil Nadu and all other states.

Of course, politics of blame game will only further obfuscate the real conspiracy behind the TJ activities. Arvind Kejriwal hogging limelight daily on the TV screens (Press briefing) is following the script to hide his government’s failure and shifting the blame to the whipping boy – Delhi Police.

Arvind Kejriwal, Satyendar Kumar Jain (Home and Health Minister) and the AAP MLA of Jangpura constituency are all squarely responsible and accountable for the failure to monitor the activities of the Nizamuddin Dargah and the happenings behind the scenes of MARKAZ (Conference). Otherwise, political leaders go around in convoys accompanied by followers during poll campaigns and victory parades. But, they hide behind in AC Rooms and appear before TV screens boasting about announcements. Surely, effective leaders must lead from the front.

Kudos to Yogi Adityanath who has gone around Gautam Budh Nagar and adjoining districts and monitoring and reviewing developments and passing clear directions to the official machinery to act and deliver. High time for all CMs, Ministers and MLAs to be on the roads visiting Mohallas, Slums, Relief Camps, Hospitals and other facilities to monitor effective delivery of services.

In sum, TJ of Nizamuddin is an Islamic radical terrorist hub or time bomb in being and making. The controversy and blame games over COVID-19 spread apart, there is a need to investigate the conspiracy hatched during the Markaz.

https://www.organiser.org/Encyc/2020/4/2/Tablighi-Jamaat-Controversy-or-Conspiracy.html

'BJP may use Nizamuddin event to push its NRC, civil code agenda'

'BJP may use Nizamuddin event to push its NRC, civil code agenda'


Posted: Apr 03, 2020 11:36 AM (IST)


'BJP may use Nizamuddin event to push its NRC, civil code agenda'

Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, April 3 

While corona numbers are expected to rise (as also revealed by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal today) after results of tests of those who attended Tablighi Jamaat gathering in Nizammuddin come forth,  observers are expecting some major political developments in near future in view of the current happenings in the country.

The Nizamuddin gathering has already been christened the "hotspot of deadly coronavirus".

Yesterday, BJP president JP Nadda slammed those “weakening” India’s fight against Covid19. He did not name anyone or a particular event, but it was clear who he was referring to. Today, quoting a Delhi government letter to the Commissioner of Police, leaders of the BJP's ideological fountainhead, the RSS, said patients from Markaz are creating ruckus in hospitals. “Deployment of more police personnel is sought at hospitals as well as at quarantine centres where those from Markaz have been put up,” they said, leading observers to believe that after CAA and NPR, the incident may be used to strengthen the saffron agenda—the NRC, a population control law and a uniform civil code.



Ratings and popularity of the ruling BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi depend upon how India manages and emerges from the corona crisis. The initial days of the lockdown that saw migrant labourers trudging on India’s highways to desperately reach home was a black mark that could and would have been used by the Opposition to pin the BJP on the mat, they say.

But the Tablighi Jamaat gathering in Nizammuddin has given the saffron party an opportunity to turn around the situation and perhaps also provide a perfect opening for the key Hindutva agenda (NRC, UCC etc), which had to be put on the back burner after anti-CAA protests.

After returning back to power in 2019, the Narendra Modi government and its new Home Minister Amit Shah set about methodically to implement and accomplish the Hindutva projects by bringing Constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir, setting in motion the construction of “grand” Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and working towards CAA. 

"Covid19 may have brought governance and economy back on centre stage, but the Tablighi event has given a perfect political opportunity to the saffron party to complete the rest. The PM is expected to bring India out of the crisis relatively less affected than the West, which is expected to add to his goodwill, say observers. Though his response to the pandemic, the health infrastructure and the state of Indian economy will be used by the Opposition to label it as another botched project like demonetisation," they say. 

Meanwhile, politics over Tablighi Jamaat gathering is in full swing.



Referring to Shaheen Bagh and similar anti-CAA protests in the country, leaders like Amit Malviya, Sangeet Som and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi are making no bones calling it “coronavirus terrorism”, “Taliban crime” and “Islamic insurrection” in past three months.

“Delhi’s dark underbelly is exploding! Last 3 months have seen an Islamic insurrection of sorts, first in the name of anti-CAA protests from Shaheen Bagh to Jamia, Jaffrabad to Seelampur. And now the illegal gathering of the Tablighi Jamaat at the markaz. It needs a fix!" Malviya said.

As per BJP detractors, it is an attempt to "brush under the carpet real issues like plight of migrant labourers".

swami drinks cow urine at Delhi party to piss off coronavirus,

Publicity-hungry swami drinks cow urine at Delhi party to piss off coronavirus, may go viral
Swami Chakrapani Maharaj and his outfit, known as the All India Hindu Mahasabha, held a "gaumutra party" today while India battles an epidemic of the new coronavirus disease, Covid-19. Read on. Want to protect yourself? We'll tell you what can really work.
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Ganesh Radha-Udayakumar
Ganesh Radha-Udayakumar 
New Delhi
March 14, 2020UPDATED: March 14, 2020 21:05 IST

GAU CORONA GAU: All India Hindu Mahasabha members drinking cow urine at a Delhi "gaumutra party", which according to them helps ward off the coronavirus disease, Covid-19. (Photo: Reuters/March 14)
HIGHLIGHTS
All India Hindu Mahasabha throws "gaumutra party"
Delhi event comes during Covid-19 outbreak
200 took part, organisers hope to host more events: Report
Kullads, garlands and saffron robes: it wasn't like any Delhi party you've seen. The only thing raging here? The enormous tongue of flame pouring out of "corona's" mouth.

Scary. But enter Swami Chakrapani Maharaj. Yes, the same gentleman who said a couple of years ago that flood victims in Kerala shouldn't receive help if they ate beef.

Today, he introduced a picture of a many-armed, lion-headed caricature -- "Corona", meant to represent the deadly new coronavirus -- to cow urine. (See photo below.)

Chakrapani Maharaj's outfit, known as the All India Hindu Mahasabha, hasn't been alone in peddling the gaumutra cure for the new coronavirus disease, Covid-19.

A BJP MLA from Assam, Suman Haripriya, recently suggested that cow urine and cow dung can be used to treat the infection. She also said gaumutra can cure cancer, echoing a claim made by party colleague and Bhopal MP Pragya Thakur -- one that prompted an opposition lawmaker to mock her as a potential candidate for the health ministry.

But let's get back to today's gaumutra party.

A report by Reuters says 200 people took part, and that the organisers "hoped to host similar events elsewhere in India".

Really? Perhaps they should take a look at advice tweeted recently by Prime Minister Narendra Modi:

"We can break the chain of spread and ensure the safety of all by avoiding large gatherings."


All India Hindu Mahasabha chief Swami Chakrapani Maharaj pouring cow urine on a poster which features the new coronavirus as a demon. (Photo: AP/March 14)

Coronavirus | U.P. villages tense as many skip quarantine

Coronavirus | U.P. villages tense as many skip quarantine
Omar RashidLUCKNOW:, APRIL 03, 2020 20:39 IST
UPDATED: APRIL 04, 2020 07:39 IST
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Migrant workers returning from other cities and States are being kept in primary schools or other buildings outside the village for a designated period before being granted entry to their homes.
Migrant workers returning from other cities and States are being kept in primary schools or other buildings outside the village for a designated period before being granted entry to their homes.   | Photo Credit: Special Arrangement

The government estimates that around 2-2.5 lakh migrants returned to various districts of U.P. after it operated bus services to transport them back from Delhi and nearby cities.
Authorities in Uttar Pradesh are struggling to contain people within coronavirus (COVID-19) quarantine centres in rural areas.

Interactive map of confirmed coronavirus cases in India | State Helpline numbers

In many districts, migrants who returned home following the lockdown and consequent loss of jobs, and were kept inside these centres as per preventive protocol, have jumped quarantine or found reasons to leave the centres. The government estimates that around 2-2.5 lakh such migrants returned to various districts of U.P. after it operated bus services to transport them back from Delhi and nearby cities.


The administration has taken action against such persons in several districts including Hathras, Sultanpur, Lakhimpur Kheri, Rae Bareli, Sitapur, and Azamgarh.


Those returning from other cities and States are being kept in primary schools or other buildings outside the village for a designated period before being granted entry to their homes.

In Sultanpur, 26 persons out of 115 in a quarantine centre in Faridipur village in Gosaiganj escaped from the second floorwith the help of a cloth rope at night on March 31. However, the Sultanpur police said all 26 were were soon traced and arrested.

Also Read | Largest facility for migrants in U.P. district awaits first occupant

In Rae Bareli on Thursday, an FIR was lodged against nine persons in Kubna village in Maharajganj tehsil for escaping the isolation centre built inside the local primary school. The FIR invoked Sections 269, 270 and 188 of the Indian Penal Code and relevant clauses of the Disaster Management Act.

In his police complaint, Lekhpal Badrinath Tripathi said the nine persons should be charged as by escaping they risked spreading COVID-19 knowing well that it was a highly infectious disease. “They have violated the full lockdown in the State,” Mr. Tripathi said.

In Rae Bareli, the district magistrate also ordered FIRs against 19 persons in Salon, Deeh and Nasirabad areas for escaping the quarantine centres and not following "quarantine norms."

Hathras police officials on Thursday evening said they had lodged a case against 29 persons under Sections 269 and 270 of the IPC and Section 4 of the Epidemic Diseases Act for allegedly escaping the quarantine centre in Sarabar village in Sadabad. Thirty-five persons were kept at the quarantine centre with some of them coming there recently after the huge influx of migrants fleeing home from cities like Delhi.

“A panchayat secretary was put on duty there. After they had dinner, when the panchayat secretary moved from there, they proceeded towards the villages,” said District Magistrate Praveen Kumar Laxkar. The panchayat secretary was suspended and a case lodged under relevant sections, said the DM.

In Lakhimpur Kheri district, police are probing the death of a 25-year-old Dalit man Roshan who was found hanging in the fields of his village Thariya Pipriya on March 31 three days after he returned home from Gurgaon where he worked in a power tower firm. His family alleged that he was threatened and badly thrashed by policemen for allegedly escaping from the local quarantine centre, following which he hung himself. Roshan had left the quarantine centre after his sister-in-law asked him to go to local flour mill to grind the grains, his brother Sipahilal said in his police complaint.

Superintendent of Police, Lakhimpur Kheri, Poonam said Roshan was not present at the quarantine centre when the verification was going on. “He was roaming outside the village,” she said, adding that policemen of Maigalganj had an altercation with him. Both constables have been sent to the police lines while a circle officer is probing the matter, Ms. Poonam added.

While Roshan’s family alleged that he had fractured his arm in the police assault and received other injuries, Kheri police said in a statement that no such injury was found in the autopsy and that the reason of death was hanging.

Kranti Kumar Singh, a political activist associated with the Samajwadi Party, questioned the credibility of the police probe saying they did not file any FIR against the constables. Mr. Singh said locals had a video footage showing injury marks on Roshan’s body. “He left hand was fractured and had swelling marks on his hip and right hand. That’s why he wasn’t cremated but buried so that a fresh autopsy can take place through a court order after the lockdown phase,” Mr. Singh said.

Awanish Awasthi, additional chief secretary home, said 40-50 persons had also left the quarantine centre in Hapur, adding that action would be taken against officials for laxity. Mr. Awasthi appealed people to not leave the quarantine centres unnecessarily, saying it was in their interest, and even suggested that people can pass time by practicing yoga.

Briefing media on Friday, Mr. Awasthi also said Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath instructed that the district police chief and district magistrate would be held accountable and action be taken against the concerned karmacharis if people escape from the quarantine centres.

Several activists from East U.P. raised concerns that the migrants may be giving the slip to the authorities due to the poor vigilance.

Vinod Yadav, an activist in Azamgarh, said things depend on the will and activism of the village heads. While some village heads and panchayat secretaries are closely monitoring the migrants, some are still not active or are absent from the village, he said

Village heads from East U.P. also acknowledged that the onus was on them to ensure that those quarantined stayed in the centres, as the protocol was not being strictly maintained and it was difficult to monitor the situation from a higher level.

Jagdamba Pal Dubey, a village head from Gorakhpur, said he had locked the gate of the school compound to ensure that the two migrants who were quarantined do not escape. “I keep going there to inquire about their health. In nearby villages, reports are that people escape the centres at night and return in the morning,” said Mr. Dubey.

ICMR changes strategy for coronavirus testing in India

ICMR changes strategy for coronavirus testing in India
ICMR has said foreign returnees must stay in quarantine for 14 days and tested only if they become symptomatic.
ET Online|Last Updated: Mar 21, 2020, 04.42 PM IST

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), on Friday, reiterated that there were no documented cases of community transmission of coronavirus in the country, and that it

ICMR Study Suggests Its Testing Strategy Was Flawed, Airport Screening a Miss
28/03/2020


PRIYANKA PULLA
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‘Help Us’: After Deaths on Coronavirus-Hit Ship, Guests Clamour to Leave
Bengaluru: As public health experts continue to wonder why India has such low rates of diagnostic tests for COVID-19 per capita, a recently published study by ICMR scientists indicates the council may have ignored its own analysis on the need for more aggressive testing.

A mathematical model prepared by ICMR scientists almost two months ago suggested that simply isolating symptomatic international air passengers could not have helped delay a COVID-19 epidemic in India.

In the model, published in a paper this month, scientists from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) compared a scenario of ‘no airport screening’ with three other scenarios in which airport screening detected all symptomatic cases. The researchers found that even flawless screening couldn’t have delayed a COVID-19 epidemic in India by more than 2.9 days because such screening wouldn’t capture infectious people who weren’t yet showing any symptoms (a.k.a. pre-symptomatic cases).

The model also suggested that the only strategy that could appreciably ‘flatten the curve’ for India would be extensive testing of symptomatic people with no travel history, allowing up to 50% of all COVID-19 infections to be identified.

These findings raise serious questions about ICMR’s reluctance to widen testing beyond people with a travel history until only last weekend.

Jacob John, a professor of community medicine at Vellore’s Christian Medical College, said, “I believe the testing of only travel-related cases was a serious error.” As of March 17, ICMR had tested only 500 community cases  of severe acute respiratory illness (SARI). The agency changed its strategy only on March 20, to include all SARI and pneumonia cases.

Further, after WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus asked all countries to “test, test, test”, ICMR officials claimed to have written to WHO’s India office that Ghebreyesus’s statement was unwarranted because it didn’t apply to countries like India with no evidence of community transmission.

When asked why ICMR waited so long to widen community testing, despite the agency’s own model suggesting otherwise, the paper’s coauthor and epidemiologist Tarun Bhatnagar said logistical constraints had played a part. “This is not Singapore or South Korea, which are like a single Indian state. We have to take a balanced approach to see that we are using our resources in an optimal manner,” he told The Wire Science.

However, by ICMR’s own admission, India had ample capacity to conduct tests for COVID-19, and so a shortage wasn’t the cause for the slow ramp-up. Raman Gangakhedkar, another coauthor of the paper, has said previously that ICMR was only using 10% of its testing capacity. The reason it wasn’t expanding further, he explained, was because there was no evidence of community transmission.

This conclusion was in turn seemingly based on negative test results from 500 SARI samples – a sample size that other experts have called inadequate for a country of over 1.3 billion people.

Coronavirus | Cases surge; ICMR denies community transmission
SPECIAL CORRESPONDENTNEW DELHI, MARCH 29, 2020 23:37 IST
UPDATED: MARCH 30, 2020 09:18 IST
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A girl stands amid smoke as municipal workers fumigate an area in Ahmedabad on March 29, 2020.
A girl stands amid smoke as municipal workers fumigate an area in Ahmedabad on March 29, 2020.   | Photo Credit: AP

Since the lockdown was announced on March 24, India has added between 75-100 cases a day on average.
India on Sunday reported more than 100 new cases of COVID-19, bringing the overall case load to 979.

“There have been six deaths in the past 24 hours,” said Joint Secretary in the Union Health Ministry Lav Agrawal at a briefing.

Coronavirus | Helpline numbers | Interactive map of confirmed coronavirus cases in India

“We have identified certain emerging hotspots and [will] investigate, on a war footing, what action can be taken there,” he added. However, none of the officials at the briefing specified the hotspots or the number of cases at these locations.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) said testing for new cases has been stepped up to 30% of the nation’s capacity.

Coronavirus | Why are only a fraction of cases tested?

Director-General of ICMR Balram Bhargava had said earlier this month that the country could theoretically test upto 70,000 samples a week.

Head of Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases at ICMR, Raman Gangakhedkar, said there was no estimate yet of whether the nationwide lockdown — now into its fifth day — had managed to check community transmission. “If we all observe the lockdown strictly then there’s a chance that we will soon reach the peak number of cases,” Dr. Gangakhedkar added. The ICMR continues to maintain that there are no instances of community transmission.

Coronavirus | Isolation is India's best weapon: ICMR

Reports from State health authorities put the death toll from COVID-19 at 29, with 1,121 positive cases. Maharashtra reported two fatalities, while J&K and Delhi reported one each on Sunday. Maharashtra and Kerala continued to have the most cases at 203 and 202 respectively. Kerala reported 20 new cases, while 1.41 lakh people are under observation, State Health Minister K.K. Shailaja said. Maharashtra had 22 new cases, with 10 from Mumbai.

Coronavirus | Cases surge; ICMR denies community transmission

Since the lockdown was announced on March 24, India has added between 75-100 cases a day on average. According to district-wise updated figures from the Union Health Ministry, Mumbai recorded the highest number of cases at 81, followed by Kasargod in Kerala with 78. Bangalore came next with 26.

Coronavirus | Why 21-day lockdown period?

The National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority has asked States to coordinate with manufacturers of gloves, hand sanitisers and masks to address shortages in these products. The list mentions 35 manufacturers of gloves, 49 makers of sanitisers and 34 mask makers.

As of Sunday, coronavirus infections have been recorded in 188 countries. There were 6,83,694 cases according to covidindia.org, an independent tracker, and 32,155 deaths globally.

The thrust of the government is to ensure that the lockdown restrictions are strictly adhered to, said Mr. Agrawal. Delhi has seen a surge in migrants packing up and trying to leave the city for their homes in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar mainly but stranded in the city want of transport. The Central government reiterated directions to States to ensure that people stayed put and they be provided food, water and shelter.


Government Drops First Hint of Community Transmission in India
30/03/2020


BANJOT KAUR AND RICHARD MAHAPATRA
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Coronavirus: Paying the Price of Science Denialism… Again
Some patients suffering from severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) without any history of international travel or contact with anybody infected by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) have tested positive for the virus, the government said on March 28, 2020.

The comments by Raman Gangakhedkar, head of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR)’s epidemiology division, at a press conference in New Delhi were the first official indication that the novel coronavirus disease, COVID-19, may have infected patients outside the limited criterion of overseas travel history.

Gangakhedkar did not divulge the number of such patients who had tested positive but only said that they were “sporadic”. He downplayed that this could indicate community transmission of COVID-19.

Out of nearly 110-120 samples tested for SARI, as many as 10% had been confirmed positive for COVID-19, sources from ICMR said.

Stage 3 of the coronavirus epidemic in India, known as community transmission, is the phase in which the source of infection cannot not be known or traced either to international travel or contact history.

“Even if the number is small, this is an indicator that India is likely in stage 3,” T. Sundararaman, former head of the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s National Health Systems Resource Centre, said.

It was wrong on the part of the government to deny such a ‘reality’ by taking refuge in the fact that such positive cases were less in number, he added.

“Absence of evidence is being used as evidence of absence. When one links it with our very [low] sampling, it is worrying,” he said.

“Despite being expanded on paper, the testing criteria remains limited in practice. It is difficult for an acute respiratory illness patient to be tested for COVID-19 in reality, despite guidelines saying so. I think it is no longer a matter of discussion in which stage we are but rather channelise all our resources in preparing hospitals for stage-3,” he told Down To Earth.

Emergency preparations afoot

Meanwhile, officials across India’s states seem to scrambling in order to prepare the health infrastructure for stage-3.

A WhatsApp message late on the night of March 27 to a senior official of Chhattisgarh jolted him out of his slumber. “Book all private hospitals, clear all roads from remote areas to district hospitals, count and clean all ICU instruments and please put all available ventilators at your direct control,” the message read.

The official is among those managing the state’s response to the pandemic. Within five minutes of him receiving the message, he also received a call from a senior official in neighbouring Odisha. “How many ventilators are there in Raipur? And how many affected people?”

In the next 20 minutes, senior officials directly in charge of the fight against COVID-19 in nine states, including Kerala, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, undertook an extensive assessment of the situation.

“Unofficially, Delhi [shorthand for ICMR, which comes under the government] has confirmed community transmission occurring at a speed and reach higher and wider than expected,” an official from UP said.

Also read: Four Reasons It’s Hard to Believe India Doesn’t Have Community Transmission

The influx of thousands of migrants to and from these above states since March 26 has added to the panic.

By the evening of March 28, official spokespersons of Odisha and Chhattisgarh hinted that community transmission was imminent.

Activities at the village-level in states like Odisha and Uttar Pradesh point to enhanced alertness. Odisha has granted panchayats Rs 5 lakh each for isolation exercises and critical medical expenditure. Focus on mapping out infrastructure has heightened.

While all these are standard practices of preparedness, the message originating from Delhi and being officially communicated with urgency to district collectors has added to the fear that government assessment of the situation is different than what it has been projecting.

“We all know stage 3 is a reality. With or without declaration, we have to prepare,” a senior official dealing with the Chhattisgarh chief minister’s team on COVID-19, said. “But the official internal communications of the last 24 hours are pointing to certainty about it.”

Delhi’s Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal had also posted a tweet to this effect: “I have received the report from the panel of doctors headed by Dr [S.K.] Sareen recommending measures to prepare for a potential stage-3 outbreak of COVID-19 in Delhi.”

The state government was ramping up capacity for an eventuality of 1,000 daily positive cases for testing, treatment and isolation, he added.

Also read: ICMR Study Suggests Its Testing Strategy Was Flawed

Thus far, India has had quite a few instances of people testing positive for COVID-19 without any prior international or contact history.

A 20-year-old man from Tamil Nadu had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on March 18.

The state’s health minister C. Vijaya Bhaskar described his case as “domestic”. The patient had a travel history of Delhi. “We have not been able to find any other contact or international travel history,” Sampath Palani from the state’s health department told Down To Earth on March 28.

Madhya Pradesh’s Indore, Chhattisgarh’s Raipur and Odisha’s Raipur have also reported such cases.

Banjot Kaur and Richard Mahapatra are reporters at Down To Earth magazine. This article was originally published on Down To Earth and has been republished here with permission.

Coronavirus: What is community transmission?
India says it won't hide the truth from its public if it enters what's called the community transmission stage, or Stage 3, of the coronavirus outbreak. But what exactly does that mean? Here's a detailed explainer.
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Ganesh Radha-Udayakumar
Ganesh Radha-Udayakumar 
New Delhi
March 29, 2020UPDATED: March 29, 2020 13:23 IST

The government recently said that if India's coronavirus outbreak reaches the community transmission stage, "we will tell people so that we can step up the level of alertness and awareness." We explain what that term means. (Photo by Reuters/Taken in Mumbai, on March 28, 2020)
HIGHLIGHTS
India's caseload crosses 1,000; over 2 dozen dead
Lockdown till April 14; migrant worker exodus a worry
Community transmission: We take a closer at a key concept
India's coronavirus caseload is growing fast -- over 1,000 people now have, or have had the virus -- but experts from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) say evidence of community transmission is scarce.

But what exactly is that?

Well, it's got to do with our ability to tell how patients got infected.

At the community transmission stage (the "Stage 3" you keep hearing about), a disease spreads in the population is such a way that people don't know how they were exposed to the contagion: they haven't travelled to a part of the world that's currently battling an outbreak, or haven't been in contact with someone they know has the coronavirus.

Chezney Schulte, a public health official in the US state of Missouri, put it like this to local channel KMIZ:

"You are racking your brain thinking, I must have gotten it out in the community by going about my day-to-day life...I just don't have that person I can pinpoint it down to where I would have gotten it."
'If India enters that stage, we won't hide it'

Back home, the Press Trust of India reports that three people who were found to be infected with the coronavirus -- after the ICMR announced a major expansion of its testing criteria -- had no exposure history.

But ICMR's Head of Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases, Raman R Gangakhedkar, said there were "some sporadic cases where people are not revealing their exposure history", but the numbers weren't "significant enough to assume that the virus is spreading rapidly".

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"We can consider that we are in the community transmission stage only when there are about 20 to 30 per cent cases with no clue on how they got the virus."
- India's Ministry of Health and Family Welfare
CORONAVIRUS: QUICK FACTS
Previously unknown type called Sars-CoV-2. First detected in China.
Causes potentially fatal respiratory disease called Covid-19.
Elderly and patients with pre-existing conditions at greater risk.
On March 19, a few days before India imposed an ambitious nationwide lockdown to enforce social distancing, the ICMR said more than 800 random samples tested to detect community transmission had come out negative.

"We can consider that we are in the community transmission stage only when there are about 20 to 30 per cent cases with no clue on how they got the virus," said Lav Aggarwal, a joint secretary in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, later in the week.

"If India enters that stage, we will not hide it. We will tell people so that we can step up the level of alertness and awareness."